Validation of a model of lung cancer risk prediction among smokers

被引:62
作者
Cronin, Kathleen A.
Gail, Mitchell H.
Zou, Zhaohui
Bach, Peter B.
Virtamo, Jarmo
Albanes, Demetrius
机构
[1] Natl Canc Inst, Div Canc Control & Populat Sci, Bethesda, MD USA
[2] Natl Canc Inst, Div Canc Epidemiol & Genet, Bethesda, MD USA
[3] Informat Management Serv Inc, Silver Spring, MD USA
[4] Cornell Univ, Med Ctr, Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, New York, NY 10021 USA
[5] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Promot, Helsinki, Finland
来源
JNCI-JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE | 2006年 / 98卷 / 09期
关键词
D O I
10.1093/jnci/djj163
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
The Bach model was developed to predict the absolute 10-year risk of developing lung cancer among smokers by use of participants in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial of lung cancer prevention. We assessed the validity of the Bach model among 6239 smokers from the placebo arm of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study. The expected numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths without lung cancer were calculated from the Bach model and compared with the observed numbers of corresponding events over 10 years. We found that the risk model slightly underestimated the observed lung cancer risk (number of lung cancers expected/number observed 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.99) over 10 years. The competing risk portion of the model substantiafly underestimated risk of non-lung cancer mortality (number of non-lung cancer deaths expected/number observed = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.64) over 10 years. The age-specific concordance indices for 10-year predictions were 0.77 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.84), 0.59 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.65), 0.62 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.67), and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.49 to 0.67) for the age groups 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years, respectively. Periodic radiographic screening in the ATBC Study may explain why slightly more cancers were observed than expected from the Bach model.
引用
收藏
页码:637 / 640
页数:4
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