Evaluation of solar radiation prediction models in North America

被引:85
作者
Ball, RA
Purcell, LC
Carey, SK
机构
[1] Univ Arkansas, Dept Crop Soil & Environm Sci, Fayetteville, AR 72704 USA
[2] Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Plant Sci, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A8, Canada
[3] Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Geog, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A5, Canada
关键词
D O I
10.2134/agronj2004.0391
中图分类号
S3 [农学(农艺学)];
学科分类号
0901 ;
摘要
Solar radiation data at the earth's surface (R-s, MJ m(-2) d(-1)) are not typically recorded at weather stations, but they may be predicted from other meteorological measurements. For one location, Keiser, AR, we developed an empirical equation for predicting Rs. The mechanistic models of Hargreaves-Samani (HS) and two forms of the Bristow-Campbell model, described by Thornton and Running (TR) and Weiss et al. (WS), were also evaluated for predicting R-s at 13 sites, covering a 23degrees range in latitude and a 42degrees range in longitude. For the HS, TR, and WS models, we used coefficients as they were originally published, and for the HS model, a site-specific coefficient (HS-SS) was derived and evaluated for each site. Regression of predicted vs. observed R-s values using the empirical equation for Keiser gave r(2) values (0.77) similar to the best of the mechanistic models. The HS-SS model had the lowest root mean square error of 3.50 MJ m(-2) d-1, followed by the TR (3.56), the HS (3.86), and the WS (4.33) models. Predicted vs. observed values gave r(2) values ranging from 0.72 (TR model) to 0.56 (WS model). There was a slight superiority of the TR model over the HS-SS and HS models. Similar fits (r(2) > 0.87) and errors were found among the TR, HS-SS, and HS models when R-s values were averaged over a 7-d period, and it was concluded that these three models provided accurate and precise R-s estimations for our sites without further model modification.
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页码:391 / 397
页数:7
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