Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

被引：7

作者：

Althaus, Christian L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland

来源：

PEERJ | 2015年 / 3卷

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Basic reproduction number; Mathematical model; Ebola virus disease; Outbreak; Democratic Republic of Congo; VIRUS DISEASE;

D O I：

10.7717/peerj.1418

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R-0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number R-t fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

引用

页数：8

共 16 条

[1] Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control [J].

Althaus, C. L. ;

Low, N. ;

Musa, E. O. ;

Shuaib, F. ;

Gsteiger, S. .

EPIDEMICS, 2015, 11 :80-84

[2]

Althaus Christian L, 2014, PLoS Curr, V6, DOI 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288

[3]

Althaus CL, 2015, LANCET INFECT DIS, V15, P507, DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70135-0

[4]

[Anonymous], 2014, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing

[5]

[Anonymous], EB VIR DIS DEM REP C

[6]

[Anonymous], 2014, PLOS CURR, DOI DOI 10.1371/CURRENTS.OUTBREAKS.6F7025F1271821D4C815385B08F5F80E

[7] Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections [J].

Aylward, Bruce ;

Barboza, Philippe ;

Bawo, Luke ;

Bertherat, Eric ;

Bilivogui, Pepe ;

Blake, Isobel ;

Brennan, Rick ;

Briand, Sylvie ;

Chakauya, Jethro Magwati ;

Chitala, Kennedy ;

Conteh, Roland M. ;

Cori, Anne ;

Croisier, Alice ;

Dangou, Jean-Marie ;

Diallo, Boubacar ;

Donnelly, Christl A. ;

Dye, Christopher ;

Eckmanns, Tim ;

Ferguson, Neil M. ;

Formenty, Pierre ;

Fuhrer, Caroline ;

Fukuda, Keiji ;

Garske, Tini ;

Gasasira, Alex ;

Gbanyan, Stephen ;

Graaff, Peter ;

Heleze, Emmanuel ;

Jambai, Amara ;

Jombart, Thibaut ;

Kasolo, Francis ;

Kadiobo, Albert Mbule ;

Keita, Sakoba ;

Kertesz, Daniel ;

Kone, Moussa ;

Lane, Chris ;

Markoff, Jered ;

Massaquoi, Moses ;

Mills, Harriet ;

Mulba, John Mike ;

Musa, Emmanuel ;

Myhre, Joel ;

Nasidi, Abdusalam ;

Nilles, Eric ;

Nouvellet, Pierre ;

Nshimirimana, Deo ;

Nuttall, Isabelle ;

Nyenswah, Tolbert ;

Olu, Olushayo ;

Pendergast, Scott ;

Perea, William .

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2014, 371 (16) :1481-1495

[8]

Boelle P.Y., 2015, R0 ESTIMATION R0 REA

[9] Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease [J].

Camacho, A. ;

Kucharski, A. J. ;

Funk, S. ;

Breman, J. ;

Piot, P. ;

Edmunds, W. J. .

EPIDEMICS, 2014, 9 :70-78

[10] The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda [J].

Chowell, G ;

Hengartner, NW ;

Castillo-Chavez, C ;

Fenimore, PW ;

Hyman, JM .

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 2004, 229 (01) :119-126

← 1 2 →