An analysis of the crime rate in the Netherlands 1950-93

This study describes an analysis of trends in mime in the Netherlands during the period 1950 using time-series analysis to estimate relationships between recorded mime and demographic, economic and policy developments in the community. We are especially interested in the relationship between crime and economic welfare. We use the crime rates recorded by the police, which, because of variations in the propensity to report by the victims and the recording policy of the police, may differ from actual crime rates. Therefore we include variables that measure the propensities to report and to record in our model. We estimate the relationship between several crime categories and the independent variables. The most important independent variables are: welfare measured by personal consumption of households per capita, number of unemployed people male population in four age categories, police strength, and clear-up rate of offences. Three important hypotheses are tested: (I) a higher growth in consumption leads to lower growth in the number of thefts because it leads to to less incentive with potential criminals (motivation effect); (2) a higher growth in consumption leads to higher growth in the number of thefts because more goods are available (opportunity effect); (3) a higher growth in consumption leads to higher growth in the number of violent offences because it leads to more outdoor activities (routine-activity effect). We find the following results. The motivation effect is significant with total theft, qualified theft, burglary, theft from shops and pickpocket theft. The opportunity effect is significant with car thefts. The routine-activity is significant with criminal damage. Interpretations for these findings and the problems that occur with the time-series analysis are fully discussed.