The basic reproduction number for scrapie

被引:35
作者
Matthews, L
Woolhouse, MEJ
Hunter, N
机构
[1] Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Trop Vet Med, Roslin EH25 9RG, Midlothian, Scotland
[2] Inst Anim Hlth, Neuropathogenesis Unit, Edinburgh EH9 3JF, Midlothian, Scotland
关键词
R-0; population genetics; control; epidemiology; inbreeding; transmissible spongiform encephalopathy;
D O I
10.1098/rspb.1999.0747
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The basic reproduction number R-0 provides a quantitative assessment of the ability of an infectious agent to invade a susceptible host population. A mathematical expression for R-0 is derived based on a recently developed model for the spread of scrapie through a flock of sheep. The model incorporates sheep demography, a long and variable incubation period, genetic variation in susceptibility to scrapie, and horizontal and vertical routes of transmission. The sensitivity of R-0 to a range of epidemiologically important parameters is assessed and the effects of genetic variation in susceptibility are examined. A reduction in the frequency of the susceptibility allele reduces R-0 most effectively when the allele is recessive, whereas inbreeding may increase R-0 when the allele is recessive, increasing the chance of an outbreak. Using this formulation, R-0 is calculated for an outbreak of scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep.
引用
收藏
页码:1085 / 1090
页数:6
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