A critical evaluation of the 1992 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Helton et al. (Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety 51 (1996) 53) present details and results of the 1992 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The present paper is a critical evaluation of the 1992 performance assessment for the Waste isolation Pilot Plant. This evaluation is based on current practice in performance assessment and whether the performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant has been conservative in stating the safety case for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Results of independent analyses are compared with those of the 1992 performance assessment. We challenge two key assumptions in the 1992 performance assessment that led to non-conservative results. The predicted release rate of radionuclides appears to be underestimated owing to the use of expert elicited solubilities. The overall release has been underestimated owing to the use of improperly elicited human intrusion probabilities. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.