Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities

被引：21

作者：

Baccini, Michela ^{[1
,2
]}

Biggeri, Annibale ^{[1
,2
]}

Accetta, Gabriele ^{[2
]}

Kosatsky, Tom ^{[3
]}

Katsouyanni, Klea ^{[4
]}

Analitis, Antonis ^{[4
]}

Anderson, H. Ross ^{[5
]}

Bisanti, Luigi ^{[6
]}

D'Ippoliti, Daniela ^{[7
]}

Danova, Jana ^{[8
]}

Forsberg, Bertil ^{[8
]}

Medina, Sylvia ^{[9
]}

Paldy, Anna ^{[10
]}

Rabczenko, Daniel ^{[11
]}

Schindler, Christian ^{[12
]}

Michelozzi, Paola ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Florence, Dept Stat, I-50134 Florence, Italy

[2] CSPO Sci Inst Tuscany, Biostat Unit, Florence, Italy

[3] Reg Off Europe, WHO, Rome, Italy

[4] Univ Athens, Sch Med, Dept Hyg & Epidemiol, GR-10679 Athens, Greece

[5] Univ London, Div Community Hlth Sci, London WC1E 7HU, England

[6] ASL Citta Milano, Epidemiol Unit, Milan, Italy

[7] Local Hlth Author Roma E, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy

[8] Umea Univ, Occupat & Environm Unit, Umea, Sweden

[9] Inst Veille Sanit, Dept Sante Environm, Bordeaux, France

[10] Jozsef Fodor Natl Ctr Publ Hlth, Dept Biol, Budapest, Hungary

[11] Natl Inst Hyg, Dept Med Stat, PL-00791 Warsaw, Poland

[12] Univ Basel, Inst Social & Prevent Med, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland

来源：

EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2008年 / 19卷 / 05期

关键词：

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Background: Epidemiologic Studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and (lie city-specific results were combined in Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distribute lag models in studying the delayed efTect ot'exposure. Tinic-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4 degrees C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3 degrees C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with it 1 degrees C increase ill maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12%, (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the mediterranean region and 1.84%) (0.06%, to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident front June through August. it is limited, temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some Suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

引用

页码：711 / 719

页数：9

共 37 条

[1] THE DISTRIBUTED LAG BETWEEN CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS AND EXPENDITURES [J].