Detection of hydrologic trends and variability

This paper describes the development and application of a procedure that identifies trends in hydrologic variables. The procedure utilizes the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, a permutation approach to estimate the test distribution, and accounts for the correlation structure in the data in determining the significance level of the test results. The research investigates 18 hydrologic variables that reflect different parts of the hydrologic cycle. The hydrologic variables are analyzed for a network of 248 Canadian catchments that are considered to reflect natural conditions. A selection of catchments identified to have trends in hydrologic variables is studied further to investigate the presence of trends in meteorological variables and the relationship between the hydrologic and the meteorological response to climatic change. It is concluded that a greater number of trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. There are differences in the geographic location of significant trends in the hydrologic variables investigated implying that impacts are trot spatially uniform. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.