Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper first reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.