Ocean currents and the larval phase of Australian western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus

The return of Panulirus cygnus larvae to the coast of Western Australia after nearly a year at sea and its modulation by ocean currents were addressed with an individual-based larval-transport model. The simulations implied that offshore wind-driven transport of larvae is balanced by onshore geostrophic flow. Additional simulations revealed that vertical migration behaviour was essential to larval survival through its impact on advection. The six years simulated include two of high, two of low, and two of average puerulus settlement. The most robust interannual difference of the simulations was that, when coastal sea level was low and the Leeuwin Current was weak, more early-stage larvae were lost to the north and west under the influence of the wind. Conversely, many late-stage model larvae were carried south of the fishery in years when the Leeuwin Current was strong. The fraction of model larvae remaining or arriving offshore of the fishery and metamorphosing was essentially constant from year to year, so the variation in observed puerulus settlement was not explained by the model. The results imply that the nonadvective effects of fluctuations in the Leeuwin (e.g., on temperature and primary production) were primarily responsible for the high variation in natural settlement.