Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior

被引：255

作者：

Chabris, Christopher F. ^{[1
]}

Laibson, David ^{[2
]}

Morris, Carrie L. ^{[3
]}

Schuldt, Jonathon P. ^{[4
]}

Taubinsky, Dmitry ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Union Coll, Schenectady, NY 12308 USA

[2] Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Washington Univ, St Louis, MO USA

[4] Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY | 2008年 / 37卷 / 2-3期

关键词：

Intertemporal discounting; Intertemporal choice; Impulsiveness; Health; Investment; C; D; I; J;

D O I：

10.1007/s11166-008-9053-x

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

引用

页码：237 / 269

页数：33

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