Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence and survival in the elderly

This study compared the age-specific incidence, postdiagnostic survival, and mortality for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in two cohorts of people aged 65 years and older. All subjects were members of a large prepaid health maintenance organisation. The influence of changes in CVD risk factors on these rates also was evaluated. Trends in prevalence, incidence, postdiagnostic survival, and mortality for CVD were examined in both cohorts in 1971 and 1980. Myocardial infarction (MI), angina pectoris, stroke, and congestive heart failure (CHF) were included as CVD outcomes in this analysis. Nine-year prospective data on these diagnoses were abstracted from medical records and computerized hospitalization records for both cohorts. Age-sex-adjusted cardiovascular mortality was lower for both sexes by similar to 20% in the 1980 cohort. Overall survival did not change, whereas cancer mortality increased by 76% in women and 36% in men. With the exception of stroke, there was no increase in age-adjusted or age-specific prevalence. In men, the age-adjusted prevalence of stroke in men was 24% higher in the 1980 cohort. Age-adjusted 9-year incidence of MI, angina pectoris, stroke, and CHF did not change between cohorts in either sex. Postdiagnostic, age-adjusted mortality for men with incident stroke was 24% lower in the 1980 cohort, and Postdiagnostic, age-adjusted mortality for men with incident angina was 35% lower in the 1980 cohort. Adjustment for risk factors measured at or before baseline had little influence on cohort differences in CVD incidence or duration of surgical after CVD diagnosis. This study confirms other research showing a decline in CVD mortality over the past 20 years. These findings suggest that prevalent angina pectoris is increasing in men, and that survival with stroke and with angina is improving in men. Later diagnosis of incident CHF in men suggests that prevention and early detection may be postponing the development of more serious disease. Ann Epidemiol 1996; 6:348-356.