Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe

被引:45
作者
Bouwer, Laurens M. [1 ]
Vermaat, Jan E. [1 ]
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. [1 ]
机构
[1] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2008JD010301
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Variability of atmospheric circulation is thought to be the most important factor causing annual and decadal variability of fresh water fluxes from the continents. Previous studies, however, have rarely established the sensitivity of the basins to atmospheric circulation variability. Here we present an analysis of long-term (>30 years) links between atmospheric forcing and winter (December-February) precipitation, and sensitivities of annual mean and maximum winter discharges observed at up to 608 stations across Europe. Links to four atmospheric indices are examined: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, the frequency of west circulation (FWC) as described by the subjective Gro beta wetterlagen classification, and the north to south sea level pressure difference across the European continent (SLPD). The results show that annual maximum discharges are more sensitive to variability of atmospheric circulation than mean discharges. Mean discharges vary on average between 8 and 44%, while peak discharges vary between 10 and 54% per unit index change. Discharges in Iberia and Scandinavia are more sensitive than those in central and northwest Europe. Discharge closely follows variability of atmospheric circulation. Compared with FWC and SLPD, the NAO and AO indices have only limited use for analyzing climate impacts in river basins in northwest Europe.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 46 条
  • [1] A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004
    Allan, Rob
    Ansell, Tara
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (22) : 5816 - 5842
  • [2] Identification of flood producing atmospheric circulation patterns
    Bárdossy, A
    Filiz, F
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2005, 313 (1-2) : 48 - 57
  • [3] DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN EUROPE BY ANALYZING EUROPEAN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS FROM 1881 TO 1989
    BARDOSSY, A
    CASPARY, HJ
    [J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 1990, 42 (03) : 155 - 167
  • [4] Disaster management -: Flood risk in central Europe
    Becker, A
    Grünewald, U
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2003, 300 (5622) : 1099 - 1099
  • [5] BELL GD, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P681, DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0681:ACAWTM>2.0.CO
  • [6] 2
  • [7] At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows?
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Ardoin-Bardin, Sandra
    Bonell, Mike
    Dorninger, Manfred
    Goodrich, David
    Gutknecht, Dieter
    Matamoros, David
    Merz, Bruno
    Shand, Paul
    Szolgay, Jan
    [J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2007, 21 (09) : 1241 - 1247
  • [8] Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe
    Bouwer, LM
    Vermaat, JE
    Aerts, JCJH
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2006, 33 (06)
  • [9] Techniques for assessing the climatic sensitivity of river flow regimes
    Bower, D
    Hannah, DM
    McGregor, GR
    [J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2004, 18 (13) : 2515 - 2543
  • [10] CASPARY HJ, 1995, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V20, P459, DOI DOI 10.1016/S0079-1946(96)00006-7