Models for cyclone shelter planning in Bangladesh

The coastal areas of Bangladesh are prone to disaster due to storm surge floods generated by tropical cyclones which form in the Bay of Bengal. A master plan, prepared at the request of the Government of Bangladesh, estimated that 2,500 new cyclone shelters are needed to provide adequate protection for the projected population in the year 2002, Since this will require an investment of 300 million USD (12 billion Bangladeshi Taka) which may not be possible in the near future, a means of identifying priority areas is needed. To this end a mathematical programming model is developed. The model relies on input from hydrologic simulation models which determine the spatial distribution of flood depth, as well as from surveys and an infrastructure inventory, which provide an estimate of population vulnerability. Using the mathematical programming model, a multiobjective analysis is conducted to explore some trade-offs involved in allocating shelters among a number of planning units. Results indicate that a significant trade-off exists between minimizing overall risk and maximizing regional equity when the available budget is small.