Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases:: the case of dengue in Brazil

被引：93

作者：

Favier, C

Degallier, N

Rosa-Freitas, MG

Boulanger, JP

Costa Lima, JR

Luitgards-Moura, JF

Menkès, CE

Mondet, B

Oliveira, C

Weimann, ETS

Tsouris, P

机构：

[1] LOCEAN, UMR 7159, IRD, UR182, F-75252 Paris 5, France

[2] Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Lab Transmissores Hematozoarios, Dept Entomol, BR-20001 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[3] URFF, Ctr Ciencias Biol & Saude, Boa Vista, Brazil

[4] SES CE, CEVEPI, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

[5] Inst Francais Pondichery Epidemiol Spatiale, IRD, UR178, Pondicherry, India

[6] SES DF, DIVAL, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[7] Freitas Tsouris Consultants Ltd, Spata Atiikis, Greece

[8] Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Los Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

来源：

TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH | 2006年 / 11卷 / 03期

关键词：

vector borne diseases; reproductive number; dengue; yellow fever; Brazil;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts. We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belem, Fortaleza, Boa Vista. The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models. At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.

引用

页码：332 / 340

页数：9

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