How cannibalistic is the Internet channel? A study of the newspaper industry in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands

During the past decade, irrational exuberance has tamed into a possibly equally irrational pessimism about what the Internet can accomplish. The fear of getting ruined through cannibalization losses has recently deterred many firms from deploying the Internet as a distribution channel. But do Internet channels really cannibalize firms' entrenched channels, or is this widely held assumption exaggerated? To answer this question, we apply recent structural-break time-series econometrics to quantify the impact of an Internet channel addition on the long-run performance evolution of a firm's established channels. Using a database of 85 Internet channel additions over the last 10 years in the newspaper industries of the UK and The Netherlands, we find that the often-cited cannibalization fears have, at least in this information-goods industry, been largely overstated. The Internet therefore need not be disruptive to established companies and channels. This does not, however, imply that firms enjoy free play in setting up Internet channels. In cases where the newly established Internet channel too closely mimics the entrenched channels, substantial cannibalization is more likely to take place. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.