The relationship between cartilage loss on magnetic resonance imaging and radiographic progression in men and women with knee osteoarthritis

Objective. To determine the relationship between radiographic progression of joint space narrowing and cartilage loss on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to investigate the location of MRI-based cartilage loss in the knee and its relation to radiographic progression. Methods. Two hundred twenty-four men and women (mean age 66 years) were studied. Radiographs and MRI of the more symptomatic knee were obtained at baseline and at 15- and 30-month followup. Radiographs of the knee (with weight-bearing) were read for joint space narrowing (scale 0-3), with progression defined as any worsening in score. We used a semiquantitative method to score cartilage morphology in all 5 regions of the tibiofemoral joint, and defined cartilage loss as an increase in score (scale 0-4) at any region. We examined the relationship between progression of joint space narrowing on radiographic images and cartilage loss on MRI, using a generalized estimating equation proportional odds logistic regression, adjusted for baseline cartilage score, age, body mass index, and sex. The medial and lateral compartments were analyzed separately. Results. In the medial compartment, 104 knees (46%) had cartilage loss detected by MRI. The adjusted odds ratio was 3.7 (95% confidence interval 2.2-6.3) for radiographic progression being predictive of cartilage loss on MRI. However, there was still a substantial proportion of knees (80 of 189 [42%]) with cartilage loss visible on MRI when no radiographic progression was apparent. Cartilage loss occurred frequently in the central regions of the femur and tibia as well as the posterior femur region, but radiographic progression was less likely to be observed when posterior femur regions showed cartilage loss. Radiographic progression appeared specific (91%) but not sensitive (23%) for cartilage loss. Overall findings were similar for the lateral compartment. Conclusion. While our results provide longitudinal evidence that radiographic progression of joint space narrowing is predictive of cartilage loss assessed on MRI, radiography is not a sensitive measure, and if used alone, will miss a substantial proportion of knees with cartilage loss.