A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability

A major effect of man-induced climate change could be a generally higher frequency and magnitude of extreme climatological events in Europe. Consequently, the frequency of rainfall-triggered landslides could increase. However, assessment of the impact of climate change on landsliding is difficult, because on a regional scale, climate change will vary strongly, and even the sign of change can be opposite. Furthermore, different types of landslides are triggered by different mechanisms. A potential method for predicting climate change impact on landsliding is to link slope models to climate scenarios obtained through downscaling General Circulation Models (GCM). Methodologies, possibilities and problems are discussed, as well as some tentative results for a test site in South-East France.