The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

1. The larger lakes of the English Lake District have been the subject of intensive scientific study for more than 60 years. Year-to-year variations in the weather have recently been shown to have a major effect on their physical characteristics. The area is mild but very wet and the dynamics of the lakes are strongly influenced by the movement of weather systems across the Atlantic. 2. Here, we combine the results of long-term measurements and the projections from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to assess the potential impact of climate change on the surface temperature and residence times of the lakes. 3. The RCM outputs used were produced by the U.K. Hadley Centre and are based on the IPCC 'A2' scenario for the emission of greenhouse gases. These suggest that winters in the area will be very much milder and wetter by the 2050s and that there will be a pronounced reduction in the summer rainfall. 4. An analysis of the meteorological data acquired between 1940 and 2000 shows that there have been progressive increases in the winter air temperature and in the rainfall which are correlated with the long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The trends reported during the summer were less pronounced and were correlated with the increased frequency of anticyclonic days and a decrease in the frequency of westerly days in the British Isles. 5. A simple model of the year-to-year variations in surface temperatures showed that the highest winter temperatures were recorded in the deeper lakes and the highest summer temperatures in the lakes with the shallowest thermoclines. When this model was used to predict the surface temperatures of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter increase (+1.08 degrees C) was observed in the shallowest lake and the greatest summer increase (+2.18 degrees C) in the lake with the shallowest thermocline. 6. The model used to estimate the seasonal variation in the residence time of the lakes showed that the most pronounced variations were recorded in lakes with a short residence time. Average winter residence times ranged from a minimum of 10 days to a maximum of 436 days and average summer values from a minimum of 23 days to a maximum of 215 days. When this model was used to predict the residence time of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter decrease (-20%) was observed in the smallest lake and the greatest summer increase (+92%) in the lake with the shortest residence time. 7. The results are discussed in relation to trends reported elsewhere in Europe and the impact of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the dynamics of the lakes. The most serious limnological effects were those projected for the summer and included a general increase in the stability of the lakes and a decrease in the flushing rate of the lakes with short residence times.