Indian Ocean climate event brings floods to East Africa's lakes and the Sudd marsh

During an El Nino, the expected rainfall increase over most of the Lake Victoria catchment area is similar to 15-25%. However, due to anomalous warming of the western equatorial Indian Ocean during 1997, strong convection developed over parts of the Horn and eastern Africa. This resulted in a much larger 20-160% precipitation excess during the "short rainy" season. Satellite radar altimetry data reveals that not only did Lake Victoria rise by similar to 1.7 m, but that the rainfall event similarly affected lakes Tanganyika, Malawi and Turkana. In addition, the seasonal level minima of the Sudd marshes and Lakes T'ana and Nasser continue to increase. Such a rainfall event will have severe, longterm consequences for the natural surface flows and storages along the White Nile. Based on the hydrological impacts of the historic 1961 East Africa event, we can expect the current high levels of Lake Victoria to be maintained for the remainder of this decade. In addition, we anticipate a major expansion of the permanent swamp regions of the Sudd marshes over the forthcoming seasons. Blue Nile flows, further enhanced by the above-average 1998 rainfall season, can also be expected to remain high, at least until early 1999.