Forecasting energy demand in the developing world

被引：12

作者：

Dahl, CA ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Colorado Sch Mines, Div Econ & Business, Golden, CO 80401 USA

[2] Hazen & Sawyer, Ft Collins, CO USA

来源：

ENERGY SOURCES | 1998年 / 20卷 / 09期

关键词：

demand; developing countries; elasticities; energy; forecasting;

D O I：

10.1080/00908319808970105

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

The developing world with three-fourths of the world's population consumes less than one-quarter of the world's commercial energy. As these countries grow and develop they Mill consume a larger share of the world's commercial energy, The goal of this article is to estimate the changes in the developing world's energy consumption in the coming decades. We use all available econometric estimates of income and price elasticities and other historical trends for income, population, and price growth to forecast developing world energy consumption for the next thirty years. Although we find large uncertainties over the forecasts, most scenarios suggest that energy demand in the developing world will increase over 5.5% per year and that global energy consumption can be expected to more than triple in the coming three decades.

引用

页码：875 / 889

页数：15