A note on optimal detection of a change in distribution

被引:26
作者
Yakir, B [1 ]
机构
[1] Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Stat, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel
关键词
quality control; control charts; minimax rule; Bayes rule;
D O I
10.1214/aos/1069362390
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Suppose X-1, X-2,..., Xv-1 are lid random variables with distribution F-0, and X-v, Xv+1,... are are lid with distributed F-1. The change point v is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon as possible after the distribution changes from F-0 to F-1 (detect the change), but to avoid false alarms. Pollak found a version of the Shiryayev-Roberts procedure to be asymptotically optimal for the problem of minimizing the average run length to detection over all stopping times which satisfy a given constraint on the rate of false alarms. Here we find that this procedure is strictly optimal for a slight reformulation of the problem he considered. Explicit formulas are developed for the calculation of the average run length (both before and after the change) for the optimal stopping time.
引用
收藏
页码:2117 / 2126
页数:10
相关论文
共 9 条
[1]   PROCEDURES FOR REACTING TO A CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION [J].
LORDEN, G .
ANNALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS, 1971, 42 (06) :1897-&
[2]   OPTIMAL STOPPING-TIMES FOR DETECTING CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTIONS [J].
MOUSTAKIDES, GV .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1986, 14 (04) :1379-1387
[3]   CONTINUOUS INSPECTION SCHEMES [J].
PAGE, ES .
BIOMETRIKA, 1954, 41 (1-2) :100-&
[4]   APPROXIMATIONS TO EXPECTED SAMPLE SIZE OF CERTAIN SEQUENTIAL TESTS [J].
POLLAK, M ;
SIEGMUND, D .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1975, 3 (06) :1267-1282
[5]   OPTIMAL DETECTION OF A CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION [J].
POLLAK, M .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1985, 13 (01) :206-227
[6]   AVERAGE RUN LENGTHS OF AN OPTIMAL METHOD OF DETECTING A CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION [J].
POLLAK, M .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1987, 15 (02) :749-779
[7]   DECISION THEORETIC OPTIMALITY OF THE CUSUM PROCEDURE [J].
RITOV, Y .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1990, 18 (03) :1464-1469
[8]   A COMPARISON OF SOME CONTROL CHART PROCEDURES [J].
ROBERTS, SW .
TECHNOMETRICS, 1966, 8 (03) :411-&
[9]  
Shiryayev A. N., 1978, OPTIMAL STOPPING RUL