The many projected futures of dengue

被引：125

作者：

Messina, Jane P. ^{[1
]}

Brady, Oliver J. ^{[1
]}

Pigott, David M. ^{[1
]}

Golding, Nick ^{[1
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[1
]}

Scott, Thomas W. ^{[2
,3
]}

Wint, G. R. William ^{[4
]}

Smith, David L. ^{[1
,3
]}

Hay, Simon I. ^{[1
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Spatial Ecol & Epidemiol Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

[2] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol & Nematol, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[3] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[4] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Environm Res Grp Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

来源：

NATURE REVIEWS MICROBIOLOGY | 2015年 / 13卷 / 04期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院; 英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会; 英国惠康基金; 比尔及梅琳达.盖茨基金会;

关键词：

TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS; WEST-NILE-VIRUS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; AEDES-AEGYPTI; ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES; GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION; SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM; FEVER EPIDEMIC;

D O I：

10.1038/nrmicro3430

中图分类号：

Q93 [微生物学];

学科分类号：

071005 ; 100705 ;

摘要：

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

引用

页码：230 / 239

页数：10

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