Generalized queueing network analysis of integrated supply chains

Supply chain networks are formed from complex interactions between several companies whose aim is to produce and deliver goods to the customers at specified times and places. Computing the total lead time for customer orders entering such a complex network of companies is an important exercise. In this paper we present analytical models for evaluating the average lead times of make-to-order supply chains. In particular, we illustrate the use of generalized queueing networks to compute the mean and variance of the lead time. We present four interesting examples and develop queueing network models for them. The first two examples consider pipeline supply chains and compute the variance of lead time using queueing network approximations available in the literature. This analysis indicates that for the same percentage increase in variance, an increase at the downstream facility has a far more disastrous effect than the same increase at an upstream facility. Through another example, we illustrate the point that coordinated improvements at all the facilities is important and improvements at individual facilities may not always lead to improvements in the supply chain performance. The existing literature on approximate methods of analysis of fork-join queueing systems assumes heavy traffic and requires tedious computations. We present here two tractable approximate analytical methods for lead time computation in a class of fork-join queueing systems. Our method is based on the results presented by Clarke in 1961. For the case where the 'joining' servers of the queueing system are of the type D/N/1, we present an easy to use approximate method and illustrate its use in evaluating decisions regarding logistics (for instance, who should own the logistics fleet-the manufacturer or the vendor?) and computing simple upper bounds for delivery reliability, that is the probability that customer desired due dates are met.