Aphid abundance on cereals in autumn predicts yield losses caused by Barley yellow dwarf virus

Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) damage to winter cereals and population dynamics of the aphid Rhopalosiphum padi during fall were monitored in fields during 10 years at various locations in the northern half of France. Logistic regression was used to examine whether a simple risk probability algorithm based only on the autumnal population dynamic.,, of R. padi can accurately predict yield losses caused by BYDV and, therefore, the need for insecticide treatment. Results showed that the area under the curve of the percentage of plants infested by R. padi during autumn was highly significantly related to BYDV yield losses. Then, a cost/benefit analysis was performed to estimate the optimal decision threshold resulting in the lowest annual average costs of BYDV damage and control. A "model use" strategy allowed a reduction in the annual average costs of BYDV disease and control of up to 36% when compared with a "prophylactic spraying" strategy. The optimal decision threshold was highly sensitive to variation in disease prevalence. This property was used to propose an easy way to adapt the model to any production situation through the determination of the most accurate decision threshold.