Risk analysis of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum for biological control of Cirsium arvense in pasture:: Ascospore dispersal

Natural levels of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum ascsospores in the Canterbury region were determined over 3 years by trapping depositing ascospores in dishes containing a selective agar. Mean levels in 'horticulture', 'biocontrol-pasture', 'mixed cropping' and 'pasture' strata were 115, 56, 10 and 3 ascospores m(-2) day(-1), respectively. Ascospore deposition downwind of small experimental biocontrol sites was measured on 2 days in 1994 and 9 days in 1997 in late spring. Exponential depletion models scaled up to represent a 1 ha biocontrol site, revealed that dispersing ascospores declined to natural levels at downwind distances of 2.5-7.9 m. These results imply that biological weed control in pasture using S. sclerotiorum creates no greater risk of crop disease than does horticulture, and that under the conditions of our experiments, an isolation distance of 8 m would have sufficed. However, such a safety zone may be inadequate under certain meteorological conditions not encountered in the experiments when ascospores may disperse in larger numbers over longer distances. To complete the information required to build a mechanistic model of spore dispersal (beyond the scope of this paper) which would cope with a variety of meteorological conditions, two studies were conducted on the dynamics of apothecium formation and ascospore release. In a two-year study, apothecium formation was confined to the spring (September-November), and population size peaked in mid October. In a 5-day study, ascospore release occurred during the daytime, reaching a maximum late morning on frost-free days and a lower maximum mid afternoon on days with morning frost.