A test for robustness in harvest scheduling models

Harvest scheduling models are decision support systems used to project sustainable harvest volumes while maintaining social and ecological objectives. We present a robustness test for these projections that measure the possible level of deviation between projection and implementation while still meeting projected target levels. Results using both simulation and optimization models indicate that when using a maximum sustainable volume objective, the projections have very little robustness. Reducing the target volume increases robustness, but with a large cost to the sustainable timber harvest level. Matching the level of uncertainty in the planning environment with corresponding level of robustness in projections is an important factor in creating sustainable forest management plans. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.