Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)

被引:147
作者
Berg, Andrew [1 ]
Buffie, Edward F. [2 ]
Zanna, Luis-Felipe [1 ]
机构
[1] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
[2] Indiana Univ, Dept Econ, Wylie Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA
关键词
Technological change; Robots; Artificial intelligence; Growth; Income distribution; Inequality; CAPITAL-SKILL COMPLEMENTARITY; EARNINGS INEQUALITY; LABOR-MARKET; SUBSTITUTION; AUTOMATION; EMPLOYMENT; FUTURE; HUMANS; JOBS;
D O I
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.05.014
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution. This paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the implications for inequality and output. Two assumptions are key: "robot" capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market. Our main results are surprisingly robust: automation is good for growth and bad for equality; in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise, but "eventually" can easily take generations. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码:117 / 148
页数:32
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