The Antarctic Dipole and its predictability

This study investigates the nature of interannual variability of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship with the tropical climate. We find that the dominant interannual variance structure in the sea ice edge and surface air temperature fields is organized as a quasi-stationary wave which we call the "Antarctic Dipole" (ADP). It is characterized by an out-of-phase relationship between the ice and temperature anomalies in the central/eastern Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Antarctic. The dipole consists of a strong standing mode and a weaker propagating motion within each basin's ice field. It has the same wavelength as the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and dominates the ACW variance. The dipole is clearly associated with tropical ENSO events; it can be predicted with moderate skill using linear regression involving surface temperature two to four months ahead. The prediction performs better in extreme warm/cold years, and best in La Nina years.