Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis

被引：174

作者：

Du, Zaichao ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Lin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ, RIEM, Chengdu 610074, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS | 2015年 / 188卷 / 02期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Home-purchase restriction; Property tax; Counterfactual; Cross validation; Housing price; QUANTITY CONSTRAINTS; MODEL SELECTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.018

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this paper, we respectively evaluate the effects of home-purchase restrictions and the trial property taxes on housing prices in China using a counterfactual analysis. We modify the method of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) by using the leave-n(v)-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities. Some Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the better performance of our method. We then construct the counterfactual growth rates of housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing using the selected control cities. We find that: (i) purchase restrictions reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices in Beijing by 7.69 percent; (ii) the trial property tax of Chongqing reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices by 2.52 percent; (iii) the trial property tax of Shanghai had no significant effect on housing prices. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：558 / 568

页数：11

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