Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic

被引:20
作者
Davey, Victoria J. [1 ,2 ]
Glass, Robert J. [3 ]
机构
[1] Vet Hlth Adm, Washington, DC 20420 USA
[2] Uniformed Serv Univ Hlth Sci, Bethesda, MD 20814 USA
[3] Sandia Natl Labs, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA
关键词
D O I
10.3201/eid1403.070673
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.
引用
收藏
页码:365 / 372
页数:8
相关论文
共 19 条
  • [1] *BUR CENC, 2005, US CENS 2000
  • [2] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2007, INT PREP PLANN GUID
  • [3] DIEKMANN H, 2000, MATH EPIDEMIOLOGY IN
  • [4] Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
    Ferguson, Neil M.
    Cummings, Derek A. T.
    Fraser, Christophe
    Cajka, James C.
    Cooley, Philip C.
    Burke, Donald S.
    [J]. NATURE, 2006, 442 (7101) : 448 - 452
  • [5] Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
    Ferguson, NM
    Cummings, DAT
    Cauchemez, S
    Fraser, C
    Riley, S
    Meeyai, A
    Iamsirithaworn, S
    Burke, DS
    [J]. NATURE, 2005, 437 (7056) : 209 - 214
  • [6] Fiore Anthony E., 2007, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, V56, P1
  • [7] Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
    Germann, TC
    Kadau, K
    Longini, IM
    Macken, CA
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2006, 103 (15) : 5935 - 5940
  • [8] Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza
    Glass, Robert J.
    Glass, Laura M.
    Beyeler, Walter E.
    Min, H. Jason
    [J]. EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2006, 12 (11) : 1671 - 1681
  • [9] Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic
    Hatchett, Richard J.
    Mecher, Carter E.
    Lipsitch, Marc
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2007, 104 (18) : 7582 - 7587
  • [10] *I MED, 2006, MOD COMM CONT PAND I