Use of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI images for the estimation of dynamic fire risk in Mediterranean areas

Wildfires are a major cause of land degradation in the Mediterranean region due to their frequent recurrence in the same areas. The evaluation of fire risk is therefore of high practical importance, particularly during the summer and season, when fires are most frequent and harmful. Recent studies have demonstrated that the evaluation of dynamic fire risk can be carried out by the use of remotely sensed images, and specifically of NOAA-AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. This use relies on the sensitivity of the index to vegetation dryness, which is a major predisposing factor for fire occurrence. Several problems, however, remain linked to the spatial variability of the risk in environmentally heterogeneous areas, which requires the application of suitable processing techniques to the low-resolution imagery. The current work reports on the development and testing of different methodologies for estimating dynamic fire risk by the use of NOAA-AVHRR data. The investigation was conducted in Tuscany (Central Italy) using a large archive of fires that occurred in the region and NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data of 16 years (1985-2000). Relying on previous methodological achievements of our group and other research groups, several procedures were tested to extract information related to fire risk from the remotely sensed images. These trials led to define an optimum method which is based on the identification of pixels where the accordance between interyear variations in fire probabilities and NDVI values is maximum. The accuracy of the risk estimates from this optimum method was finally evaluated by a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy. In this way, the performance of the methodology was assessed, together with its potential for operational fire risk monitoring and forecasting in Mediterranean areas. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.