Regional Climate Model evaluation and weighting Introduction

被引：31

作者：

Kjellstrom, Erik ^{[1
]}

Giorgi, Filippo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden

[2] Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, I-34014 Trieste, Italy

来源：

CLIMATE RESEARCH | 2010年 / 44卷 / 2-3期

关键词：

ENSEMBLES; RCM ensemble; Europe; Weighting scheme; PROJECTIONS; ENSEMBLES; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; SIMULATIONS; EUROPE; UNCERTAINTIES; PERFORMANCE;

D O I：

10.3354/cr00976

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

An ensemble of regional climate models downscaling reanalysis data has been evaluated against observations for the time period 1961-2000. Various aspects of model performance including both their representation of large-scale features and their ability to add value on smaller spatial scales have been considered. A set of metrics has been derived and combined into a performance-based weigthing system that is used in the production of probabilistic climate change projections. Strengths and weaknesses of weighting techniques for RCM ensembles are discussed.

引用

页码：117 / 119

页数：3

共 18 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2009, EMSEMBLES CLIMATE CH

[2] Bayesian multi-model projections of climate: generalization and application to ENSEMBLES results [J].

Buser, C. M. ;

Kuensch, H. R. ;

Schaer, C. .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 44 (2-3) :227-241

[3] A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century [J].

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg ;

Christensen, Ole Bossing .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2007, 81 (Suppl 1) :7-30

[4] Weight assignment in regional climate models [J].

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg ;

Kjellstrom, Erik ;

Giorgi, Filippo ;

Lenderink, Geert ;

Rummukainen, Markku .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 44 (2-3) :179-194

[5] Model weighting based on mesoscale structures in precipitation and temperature in an ensemble of regional climate models [J].

Coppola, E. ;

Giorgi, F. ;

Rauscher, S. A. ;

Piani, C. .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 44 (2-3) :121-134

[6] An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe:: assessing uncertainties in model projections [J].

Deque, M. ;

Rowell, D. P. ;

Luethi, D. ;

Giorgi, F. ;

Christensen, J. H. ;

Rockel, B. ;

Jacob, D. ;

Kjellstrom, E. ;

de Castro, M. ;

van den Hurk, B. .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2007, 81 (Suppl 1) :53-70

[7] Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe:: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results [J].

Déqué, M ;

Jones, RG ;

Wild, M ;

Giorgi, F ;

Christensen, JH ;

Hassell, DC ;

Vidale, PL ;

Rockel, B ;

Jacob, D ;

Kjellström, E ;

de Castro, M ;

Kucharski, F ;

van den Hurk, B .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2005, 25 (06) :653-670

[8] Weighted frequency distributions express modelling uncertainties in the ENSEMBLES regional climate experiments [J].

Deque, M. ;

Somot, S. .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 44 (2-3) :195-209

[9] Benefits and limitations of regional multi-model ensembles for storm loss estimations [J].

Donat, Markus G. ;

Leckebusch, Gregor C. ;

Wild, Simon ;

Ulbrich, Uwe .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 44 (2-3) :211-225

[10]

Giorgi F, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1141, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1141:COAURA>2.0.CO

← 1 2 →