Receptivity to tobacco advertising and promotions among young adolescents as a predictor of established smoking in young adulthood

Objectives. We investigated whether receptivity to tobacco advertising and promotions during young adolescence predicts young adult smoking 6 years later. Methods. Two longitudinal cohorts of adolescents drawn from the 1993 and 1996 versions of the California Tobacco Surveys were followed 3 and 6 years later. At baseline, adolescents were aged 12 to 15 years and were not established smokers. The outcome measure was established smoking at final follow-up. Receptivity to cigarette advertising and promotions was included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis along with demographic and other variables. Results. The rate of established smoking at follow-up was significantly greater among members of the 1993 through 1999 cohort (21.0%) than among members of the 1996 through 2002 cohort (15.6%). However, in both cohorts, having a favorite cigarette advertisement and owning or being willing to use a tobacco promotional item showed nearly identical adjusted odds of future adult smoking (1.46 and 1.84, respectively). Conclusions. Despite the success of tobacco control efforts in reducing youth smoking, tobacco marketing remains a potent influence on whether young adolescents become established smokers in young adulthood (18-21 years of age).