Modeling survival in juvenile and mature loblolly pine plantations

Data from a large, region-wide set of permanent plots were used to develop equations for predicting stand-level survival in thinned and unthinned loblolly pine plantations growing in the southeastern United States. A pre-competitive model predicts survival at young ages based on age and total number of trees surviving. A post-crown closure model predicts survival after the onset of intraspecific competition based on age, site index, thinning intensity, percent hardwood basal area and number of trees surviving. Analyses of the pre-competitive data indicated that survival trends differed by drainage class and site preparation method. Thus, separate sets of coefficients were estimated for two drainage class/site preparation groups. Analyses of the post-competitive data indicated that survival trends differed for thinned and unthinned stands and were affected by the amount of hardwood competition. Therefore, the post-crown closure model was developed and parameterized to reflect the changes in survival as a result of hardwood competition and thinning from below.