Non-keynesian fiscal adjustments? A close look at expansionary fiscal consolidations in the EU

被引:20
作者
Giudice, Gabriele
Turrini, Alessandro
in't Veld, Jan
机构
[1] DG ECFIN, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium
[2] Commiss European Communities, Directorate Gen Econ & Financial Affairs, Brussels, Belgium
[3] CEPR, London, England
关键词
fiscal consolidations; EU fiscal policy; non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy;
D O I
10.1007/s11079-007-9026-8
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper analyses the characteristics of episodes of fiscal consolidation in the EU exhibiting non-Keynesian features, i.e., followed by an improved growth performance. Roughly half of the episodes of fiscal consolidations that have been undertaken in the EU in the last 30 years have been followed by higher growth. Probit regressions indicate that the consolidations that turned out to be expansionary were more likely started in periods with output below potential and based on expenditure cuts rather than on tax increases. These results appear quite robust with respect to the criteria used to identify the consolidation episodes and to classify such episodes as expansionary.
引用
收藏
页码:613 / 630
页数:18
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