A statistical methodology for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models: An application to the ETEX exercise

被引:91
作者
Mosca, S
Graziani, G
Klug, W
Bellasio, R
Bianconi, R
机构
[1] ENVIROWARE SRL, Ctr Direz Colleoni, I-20041 Agrate Brianza, MI, Italy
[2] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy
关键词
ETEX project; model evaluation; long-range dispersion models;
D O I
10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00179-4
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This paper describes the statistical methodology applied to evaluate the performance of the long-range dispersion models that were used in the modelling activities of ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment). The availability of a large number of models makes this exercise rather unique. These models are used for the practical purpose to quantify the contamination effects over a vast area, following a hypothetical accidental release of harmful material. This makes the quality judgement that could be attributed to the results of each model particularly important. The statistical indicators considered to be the most effective for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models are introduced and commented, with specific examples in the frame of ETEX simulations. The importance of using several indices and critically interpreting the results is discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:4307 / 4324
页数:18
相关论文
共 6 条
[1]  
ERMAK D, 1988, ESLTR8837 L LIV NAT
[2]  
GIRARDI F, 1997, ETEX S LONG RANG ATM, P83
[3]  
GRAZIANI G, 1998, EUR17754EN OFF OFF P
[4]   HAZARDOUS GAS-MODEL EVALUATION WITH FIELD OBSERVATIONS [J].
HANNA, SR ;
CHANG, JC ;
STRIMAITIS, DG .
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT PART A-GENERAL TOPICS, 1993, 27 (15) :2265-2285
[5]  
Klug W., 1992, EVALUATION LONG RANG
[6]  
MOSCA S, 1998, 17756EN EUR OFF OFF