Methods for probabilistic modeling of concentrating solar power plants

被引：39

作者：

Ho, Clifford K. ^{[1
]}

Khalsa, Siri S. ^{[2
]}

Kolb, Gregory J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Sandia Natl Labs, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA

[2] Sandia Staffing Alliance, Concentrating Solar Technol, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2011年 / 85卷 / 04期

关键词：

Probabilistic modeling; Uncertainty; Sensitivity; Latin Hypercube Sampling; Concentrating solar;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2010.05.004

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Probabilistic modeling of concentrating solar power technologies provides important information regarding uncertainties and sensitivities not available from deterministic models. Benefits of using probabilistic models include quantification of uncertainties inherent in the system and characterization of their impact on system performance and economics. This paper presents the tools necessary to conduct probabilistic modeling of concentrating solar technologies. The probabilistic method begins with the identification of uncertain variables and the assignment of appropriate distributions for those variables. Those parameters are then sampled using a stratified method (Latin Hypercube Sampling) to ensure complete and representative sampling from each distribution. Models of performance, reliability, and/or cost are then simulated multiple times using the sampled set of parameters. The results yield a cumulative distribution function that can be analyzed to quantify the probability of achieving a particular metric (e.g., net energy output or levelized energy cost) and to rank the importance of the uncertain input parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：669 / 675

页数：7