SKILL OF REAL-TIME SEASONAL ENSO MODEL PREDICTIONS DURING 2002-11 Is Our Capability Increasing?

被引：558

作者：

Barnston, Anthony G. ^{[1
]}

Tippett, Michael K. ^{[1
,2
]}

L'Heureux, Michelle L. ^{[3
]}

Li, Shuhua ^{[1
]}

DeWitt, David G. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Earth Inst, Palisades, NY 10964 USA

[2] King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah 21413, Saudi Arabia

[3] NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2012年 / 93卷 / 05期

基金：

美国海洋和大气管理局;

关键词：

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; EL-NINO PREDICTION; COUPLED MODEL; OCEAN; PREDICTABILITY; FORECASTS; PACIFIC; ENSEMBLE; SST; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The low predictability of the past decade masked a gradual improvement of ENSO predictions, with skill of dynamical models now exceeding that of statistical models.

引用

页码：631 / 651

页数：21

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