Downscaling a twentieth century global climate simulation to the North Sea

The regional ocean model system (ROMS) is used to downscale a 26-year period of the twentieth century 20C3M experiment from the global coupled Bergen climate model (BCM) for the North Sea. Compared to an observational-based climatology, BCM have good results on the mean temperature, except for too low winter temperature. This is connected to a too weak inflow of Atlantic water. The downscaling gives added value to the BCM results by providing regional details, doubling the Atlantic inflow, and improving the mean winter temperature. For mean salinity, BCM has values very close to the climatology, whereas the downscaling becomes too fresh. The downscaling, however, improves the sea surface salinity, the vertical structure, and the Norwegian Coastal Current. It is concluded that the downscaling procedure as presented here is a suitable tool for assessing the future Atlantic inflow and sea temperature in the North Sea based on a global climate projection.