Dietary trends: Estimates from food supply and survey data

Objective: To illustrate methodological issues involved in estimating dietary trends in populations using data obtained from various sources in Australia in the 1980s and 1990s. Methods: Estimates of absolute and relative change in consumption of selected food items were calculated using national data published annually on the national food supply for 1982-83 to 1992-93 and responses to food frequency questions in two population based risk factor surveys in 1983 and 1994 in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. The validity of estimated food quantities obtained from these inexpensive sources at the beginning of the period was assessed by comparison with data from a national dietary survey conducted in 1983 using 24 h recall. Results: Trend estimates from the food supply data and risk factor survey data were in good agreement for increases in consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables and breakfast food and decreases in butter, margarine, sugar and alcohol. Estimates for trends in milk, eggs and bread consumption, however, were inconsistent. Conclusions: Both data sources can be used for monitoring progress towards national nutrition goals based on selected food items provided that some limitations are recognized. While data collection methods should be consistent over time they also need to allow for changes in the food supply (for example the introduction of new varieties such as low-fat dairy products). From time to time the trends derived from these inexpensive data sources should be compared with data derived from more detailed and quantitative estimates of dietary intake.