Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections in Boreal Summer: Observed Interannual Variability

Maximum covariance analysis is performed on the fields of boreal summer, tropical rainfall, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) 200-hPa height for the 62-yr period of record of 1948-2009. The leading mode, which appears preferentially in summers preceding the peak phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, involves a circumglobal teleconnection (COT) pattern in the NH extratropical 200-hPa height field observed in association with Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies. The second mode, which tends to occur in summers following ENSO peak phases, involves a western Pacific North America (WPNA) teleconnection pattern in the height field observed in association with western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall anomalies. The CGT pattern is primarily a zonally oriented wave train along the westerly waveguide, while the WPNA pattern is a wave train emanating from the western Pacific monsoon trough and following a great circle. The COT is accompanied by a pronounced tropical extratropical seesaw in the zonally symmetric geopotential height and temperature fields, and the WPNA is observed in association with hemispherically uniform anomalies. These ENSO-related features modulate surface air temperature in both the tropics and extratropics. ENSO also affects the wave structure of the COT and WPNA indirectly, by modulating the strengths of the Indian and western North Pacific monsoons. Linear barotropic mechanisms, including energy propagation and barotropic instability of the basic-state flow, also act to shape and maintain the COT. The implications of these findings for seasonal prediction of the NH extratropical circulation are discussed.