Changing a decision taken under uncertainty: The case of the criminal's location choice

In this paper we analyse the allocation of criminal activity over the metropolitan area over time. At each period of time, the criminal must choose in which area to commit his/her next offence. The criminal's expectations regarding his/her utility as a function of the probability to be apprehended are updated in the process of work. We find general conditions, under which the criminal determines his optimal location strategy. A direct policy implication of our model suggests that spillover effect is the result of changing police activities.