Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates(1,2), and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability(3). The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton(4,5), but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird.