The effect of the northeast dairy compact on producers and consumers, with implications of compact contagion

We model and measure the effects of the Northeast Dairy Compact on prices, quantities, and producer and consumer welfare, underscoring the distribution of these effects across regions and among producers and buyers. Using 1999 as a base year, simulations show that the Compact raised the farm price of milk in the Northeast by $0.45/cwt, lowered the farm price of milk in the rest of the country by $0.02/cwt, and transferred income from producers outside the Compact region and buyers in the Compact region to producers in the Compact region. Non-Compact producer losses exceeded Compact producer gains. Similar results are found for a scenario of Compact contagion-extension of the Compact to include additional states. In both cases, the Compact changed the distribution of the costs and benefits of price discrimination as practiced by milk marketing orders. The regional distribution of the Compact's welfare effects raises again the question of the organization and stability of the federal milk marketing order system.