A host-pathogen simulation model: powdery mildew of grapevine

An epidemiological model simulating the growth of a single grapevine stock coupled to the dispersal and disease dynamics of the airborne conidia of the powdery mildew pathogen Erysiphe necator was developed. The model input variables were either climatic (temperature, wind speed and direction) or related to the pathogen (location and onset of primary infection). The environmental input variables dictated plant growth and pathogen spread (latent period, infection, lesion growth, conidial spore production and release). Input parameters characterized the crop production system, the growth conditions and the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen. Output described, at each time step, number, age and pattern of healthy and infected organs, infected and infectious leaf area and aerial density of spores released. Validation of the model was achieved by comparing model output with experimental data for epidemics initiated at different times of host growth. Epidemic behaviour for two contrasting years of crop development and 7 phenological stages at the time of primary infection (PI) was examined. For PI occurring at day 115 a vine with late budbreak (1998) showed 58% of primary leaves diseased at flowering compared with only 19% for a vine with early budbreak (2003). Depending on the phenological stage at PI (1-4 leaves), the proportion of diseased primary leaves decreased from 42% to 6% at flowering. Simulations suggested that differences resulted from the interplay between the timing of the first sporulation event, the phenological stage at the time of initial infection, and the age structure and spatial distribution of the leaf population.