Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource -limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study

被引：128

作者：

Bogoch, Isaac I. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Brady, Oliver J. ^{[4
,5
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[6
]}

German, Matthew ^{[7
]}

Creatore, Maria I. ^{[7
,8
]}

Brent, Shannon ^{[8
]}

Watts, Alexander G. ^{[7
]}

Hay, Simon I. ^{[9
,10
]}

Kulkarni, Manisha A. ^{[11
]}

Brownstein, John S. ^{[12
]}

Khan, Kamran ^{[1
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Toronto, Div Infect Dis, Dept Med, Toronto, ON, Canada

[2] Univ Hlth Network, Div Gen Internal Med, Toronto, ON, Canada

[3] Univ Hlth Network, Div Infect Dis, Toronto, ON, Canada

[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England

[5] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[6] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, SEEG, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[7] St Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada

[8] Univ Toronto, Dalla Lana Sch Publ Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada

[9] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[10] Univ Oxford, Wellcome Trust Ctr Human Genet, Oxford, England

[11] Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[12] Harvard Med Sch, Childrens Hosp Boston, Boston, MA USA

来源：

LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2016年 / 16卷 / 11期

基金：

加拿大健康研究院;

关键词：

AEDES-AEGYPTI; OUTBREAK; STATES; FEVER; CHINA;

D O I：

10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30270-5

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Background As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Findings An estimated 2.6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1.2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Interpretation Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

引用

页码：1237 / 1245

页数：9

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