A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data

被引：36

作者：

Vosen, Simeon ^{[1
]}

Schmidt, Torsten ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Rheinisch Westfal Inst Wirtschaftsforsch, Growth & Cycles Div, D-45128 Essen, Germany

来源：

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2012年 / 19卷 / 07期

关键词：

Google Trends; consumption; forecasting; coincident indicator;

D O I：

10.1080/13504851.2011.595673

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This study introduces a monthly coincident indicator for consumption in Germany based on Google Trends data on web search activity. In real-time nowcasting experiments the indicator outperforms common survey-based indicators in predicting consumption. Unlike those indicators, it provides predictive information beyond that already captured in other macroeconomic variables.

引用

页码：683 / 687

页数：5

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