Virological rebound after suppression on highly active antiretroviral therapy

Objective: To determine the rate of virological rebound and factors associated with rebound among patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with previously undetectable levels of viraemia. Design: An observational cohort study of 2444 patients from the EuroSIDA study. Methods: Patients were followed from their first viral load under 400 copies/ml to the first of two consecutive viral loads above 400 copies/ml. Incidence rates were calculated using person-years of follow-up (PYFU), Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors related to rebound. Results: Of 2444 patients, 1031 experienced virological rebound (42.2%). The incidence of rebound decreased over time; from 33.5 in the first 6 months after initial suppression to 8.6 per 100 PYFU at 2 years after initial suppression (P < 0.0001). The rate of rebound was lower for treatment-naive compared with treatment-experienced patients. In multivariate models, patients who changed treatment were more likely to rebound, as were patients with higher viral loads on starting HAART. Treatment-naive patients were less likely to rebound. Among pretreated patients, those who were started on new nucleosides were less likely to rebound. Conclusion: The rate of virological rebound decreased over time, suggesting that the greatest risk of treatment failure is in the months after initial suppression. Treatment-naive patients were at a lower risk of rebound, but among drug-experienced patients, those who added new nucleosides had a lower risk of rebound, as were patients with a good immunological response. (C) 2003 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.