Pollution from China increases cloud droplet number, suppresses rain over the East China Sea

Rapid economic growth over the last 30 years in China has led to a significant increase in aerosol loading, which is mainly due to the increased emissions of its precursors such as SO2 and NOx. Here we show that these changes significantly affect wintertime clouds and precipitation over the East China Sea downwind of major emission sources. Satellite observations show an increase of cloud droplet number concentration from less than 200 cm(-3) in the 1980s to more than 300 cm(-3) in 2005. In the same time period, precipitation frequency reported by voluntary ship observers was reduced from more than 30% to less than 20% of the time. A back trajectory analysis showed the pollution in the investigation area to originate from the Shanghai-Nanjing and Jinan industrial areas. A model sensitivity study was performed, isolating the effects of changes in emissions of the aerosol precursors SO2 and NOx on clouds and precipitation using a state-of-the-art mesocale model including chemistry and aerosol indirect effects. Similar changes in cloud droplet number concentration over the East China Sea were obtained when the current industrial emissions in China were reduced to the 1980s levels. Simulated changes in precipitation were somewhat smaller than the observed changes but still significant. Citation: Bennartz, R., J. Fan, J. Rausch, L. R. Leung, and A. K. Heidinger (2011), Pollution from China increases cloud droplet number, suppresses rain over the East China Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09704, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047235.